Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach

Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under generalized methods of moments (GMM) and traces this syndrome...

Introduction to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

I n most industrialized economies inflation tends to be pro-cyclical; that is, inflation is high during times of high economic activity. When economic activity is measured by the unemployment rate this statistical relationship is known as the Phillips curve. The Phillips curve is sometimes viewed as a menu for monetary policymakers, that is, they can choose between high inflation and low unempl...

A Simple Test of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

We propose a way to test the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) without estimating the structural parameters governing the curve, i.e. price stickiness and firms’ backwardness. Using this strategy we can test the NKPC avoiding the identification problems related to the GMM approach. We find that it does not exist a combination of the structural parameters which is consistent with US data. This...

Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

www.philadelphiafed.org to the financial instruments that help guard savings from being eroded by inflation.1 Also, households and firms often write contracts that are stated in dollar amounts (nominal terms). A worker may, for example, sign a contract to work over the upcoming year for a fixed dollar amount. If inflation turns out to be higher than what was expected at the time the contract wa...